Who Is Most at Risk From RFK, Jr.’s Independent Run?
When Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced he would run as an independent instead of remaining a contender for the Democrat Party’s 2024 presidential nomination, pundits immediately started debating about whether the candidate would take more votes away from President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.
A series of recent polls show that Mr. Kennedy is gaining momentum and is having a mostly equal impact on both candidates.
Mr. Kennedy was the leading candidate for respondents between the ages of 18 and 36 at 38 percent, compared to 32 percent each for President Biden and President Trump.
Overall, the poll indicated that in a three-way race, President Biden garnered 39 percent, President Trump, 36 percent, and Mr. Kennedy, 22 percent. The poll surveyed 1,610 self-identified registered voters nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
“With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.
Mr. Malloy said he believes Mr. Kennedy is drawing support from younger voters because of his plan to introduce 3 percent mortgages funded by tax-free bonds.
“Every other generation was told if you work hard and live by the rules, you can finance a home. You can put money aside for retirement and raise a family with one job. There’s no one in my kids’ generation who thinks that applies to them,” Mr. Kennedy said at a recent campaign stop in Asheville, N.C.