Biden is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump

The largest 50-state poll of the 2024 cycle indicates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the only alternative to four more years of Donald Trump. This poll surveyed more than 26,000 likely voters across the country and has a margin of error of only 0.6%.

So what did this mammoth poll find?

John Zogby 50-state Poll: April 14th - April 21st
N=26,408 Margin of error = 0.6%

Biden vs Trump

President Biden cannot beat President Trump. When you actually poll every state, and tally the electoral votes, Biden loses in a head-to-head against Trump and he loses in a three-way too.

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Maine Virginia Poll

In a three-way race between Biden, Trump and Kennedy, Kennedy’s presence shifts the states of Maine and Virginia to Biden’s column, and no states to Trump’s column. So Kennedy’s presence helps Biden, but Biden still loses to Trump.

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Even if President Trump were to drop out, President Biden can’t win. In fact, if Trump drops out, Kennedy wins in a 196 electoral vote landslide.

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And if President Biden were to drop out, Kennedy wins again – the only scenario in which President Trump competes and loses.

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Only Kennedy can beat Donald Trump in 2024.

“To be a spoiler, a candidate has to fulfill two requirements — first, they must not be able to win themselves, and, second, by participating in the election, they must prevent someone else from winning who otherwise would,” Kennedy explained.

By that criterion, the only spoiler in the race is President Biden. He is the one who cannot win against either candidate and whose presence gives Trump the victory instead of Kennedy.

After presenting the detailed findings at a press conference on May 1 in Brooklyn, New York, Kennedy called on President Biden to step aside so that he could provide American voters with their only viable alternative to four more years of Donald Trump.

What makes this poll different from all the others out there?

First, the sample size: Most presidential polls rely on responses from around 2,000 people. That means they have a margin of error of several percentage points.

Second, this is the first poll of the 2024 cycle to measure the winner of each state in order to tally the electoral votes that actually determine who takes the White House.

Why does that matter? Just look at 2016. An accurate national poll would have told you Hillary Clinton was ahead by two points — but what it wouldn’t have told you was that she was behind by 77 electoral votes and therefore would lose.

Only a 50-state poll can tell you that. The poll was fielded between April 13 and April 21 with 26,408 responses. You can explore the full state-by-state breakdown here. You can find more detailed state polling information here.


No Spoiler Pledge

  • Both parties agree to co-fund a 50-state poll in mid-October 2024 of 30,000+ likely voters
  • The survey will test the results of a head-to-head race pitting President Biden against President Trump and a second head-to-head race pitting Mr. Kennedy against President Trump.
  • Both parties pledge that whomever performs weakest against President Trump in a two-man contest will drop out of the presidential race


Download the full no spoiler presentation here