Kennedy Catches Biden, Moves Into Second Place in Utah

LOS ANGELES, CA—JUNE 15, 2024—For the first time in the 2024 election, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has caught up to an establishment party candidate in a state. A groundbreaking poll conducted by HarrisX shows Kennedy pulling into second place alongside President Biden in Utah.

The poll shows Kennedy and President Biden with 20% each and President Trump with 49%. This marks the first time in decades that an independent has matched the support of a presumptive Democratic or Republican nominee in a state. 

The HarrisX poll also shows that nearly twice as many Utahns have a favorable impression of Kennedy compared to President Biden. Kennedy has a favorability of 43% to Biden’s 23%. 

Nationally, Kennedy consistently has the highest favorability among the three major candidates. He also outpaces Presidents Biden and Trump among independents, who constitute the largest political bloc in the country with 45% of U.S. adults. Only 27% identify as Republicans and 25% as Democrats. 

A recent Voto Latino poll of swing state Latinos shows Kennedy with 18% support. Kennedy also beats Presidents Trump and Biden among voters ages 18-34 and in the top 6 battleground states, RFK Jr. beats the two candidates among 18-44 year olds. 

Biden now trails Trump in 6 out of 7 swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and he’s tied with Trump in the last swing state of Michigan.

In 2020, Biden could only muster a razor-thin victory with margins of 0.2% in Georgia, 0.3% in Arizona, 0.6% in Wisconsin, 1.3% in Pennsylvania, 2.4% in Nevada, and 2.8% in Michigan. 

Today, Trump’s lead against Biden far exceeds his lead on this day four years ago. The following is a chart of Real Clear Politics’ swing state polling averages on June 14, 2020, and exactly four years later on June 14, 2024. 

Real Clear Politics poll

If the election was held today, Biden would lose with 226 electoral votes to Trump’s 312. 

Meanwhile, the largest 50-state poll of the 2024 election shows that in a head-to-head matchup, Kennedy is the only candidate who can beat President Trump. Kennedy receives 270 electoral votes to Trump’s 268. 

The same poll of more than 26,000 likely voters nationwide shows in a head-to-head matchup, Kennedy also defeats President Biden, by a historic margin. Kennedy receives 367 electoral votes to Biden’s 171.

largest 50-state poll

The poll shows that Kennedy is the Condorcet winner, the candidate who defeats all other candidates in head-to-head matchups. He is the first independent candidate ever to defeat both major party candidates in head-to-head matchups.

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